Going Abroad in Search of Monsters to Destroy?
Friday Flashpoint: March 27, AD2026
Note: next week’s Friday Flashpoint will only include analysis up to Thursday next week due to Good Friday.
Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the world knew of drones primarily from American “drone strikes” against terrorists. That changed as the Ukrainians defended themselves against a Russian war for regime change. As in 1914, hopes for a swift victory vanished as defensive technology, improved by better drone manufacturing and lethality, blunted attempts to force a change in battle lines by sheer mass. The Ukrainian defenders have transformed war and the rest of the world is catching up.
America, in the assembly of nations, since her admission among them, has invariably, though often fruitlessly, held forth to them the hand of honest friendship, of equal freedom, of generous reciprocity…Wherever the standard of freedom and Independence, has been or shall be unfurled, there will her heart, her benedictions and her prayers be. But she goes not abroad, in search of monsters to destroy. She is the well-wisher to the freedom and independence of all. She is the champion and vindicator only of her own. She will recommend the general cause by the countenance of her voice, and the benignant sympathy of her example. She well knows that by once enlisting under other banners than her own, were they even the banners of foreign Independence, she would involve herself beyond the power of extrication, in all the wars of interest and intrigue, of individual avarice, envy, and ambition, which assume the colors and usurp the standard of freedom. The fundamental maxims of her policy would insensibly change from liberty to force. The frontlet upon her brow would no longer beam with the ineffable splendor of Freedom and Independence; but in its stead would soon be substituted an Imperial Diadem, flashing in false and tarnished lustre the murky radiance of dominion and power. She might become the dictatress of the world. She would be no longer the ruler of her own spirit.
—John Quincy Adams July 4, 1821
Last month, Donald John Trump, the American president, launched another war for regime change against the Islamic Republic of Iran without authorization from Congress. He acted alongside Israel, which had pushed for the war. Like Russia, the Israeli-Trump alliance has failed to defeat Iran after a month of fighting. Although the Israelis killed Iran’s top military and political leaders, the Iranians retaliated by striking American bases, secure sites in Israel, and American Gulf allies’ critical infrastructure. Despite leading the world’s most powerful military, Mr. Trump cannot bring the Iranians to heel. The Europeans, Japan and other American allies are not rushing to help. Most of the world sees the war as a violation of international law; that the administration attacked as UN member state while negotiating has eroded trust in the United States.
The Economist has confirmed my analysis: by decapitating Iran’s incompetent clerical gerontocracy, Israel may have inadvertently modernized its enemy.1
In “The Revolutionary Guards are taking over Iran2” The Economist reported that “People close to the regime describe a system that has shifted from theocracy to something resembling a military junta, akin to Algeria, Egypt or Pakistan. “We’ve gone from divine power to hard power,” says one…“It’s now the military that pulls the strings,” says Mohamed Amersi, a British businessman with regime contacts.”
Operation Roaring Lion did not exorcise the revolutionary spirit but cleared a path for a ruthless state led by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. By installing Mojtaba Khamenei—who lacks the clerical rank for the top job—the Guard signaled that security now overrides religious legitimacy. I warned that this younger leadership would likely stop the old regime’s corruption and adopt a disciplined strategy: avoiding a direct strike on America to focus instead on bleeding its forces in the region and exploiting the vulnerabilities of the Gulf states. Iran is mocking the United States on social media and successfully leveraging relationships with Russia and China.
This week it is clear that Iran has the advantage, while the president’s war hits cash-strapped Americans. Gas and food prices are rising and America’s reputation is tanking, while Mr. Trump makes statements that analysts take as market manipulation.3 He tries to look like a master economic manager despite evidence that his war and tariffs have made Americans poorer.
While Mr. Trump—resembling Tsar Nicholas II in the First World War—rushed into a conflict with little upside, China has stayed on the sidelines. Since 2022 it has traded with Ukraine while supplying Russia, resembling the self-interested non-belligerence of the United States in the 20th century. The United States kept out of the First and Second World Wars for as long as it could while its geopolitical rivals, the European great powers, weakened themselves. They ended up dependent on the Americans, who then swept in to save the day and inherit the wealth of the world. world. China learned from America; America forgot itself.
“The Revolutionary Guards are taking over Iran” March 25, https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/03/25/the-revolutionary-guards-are-taking-over-iran
“Ten ways Trump is controlling us all” https://spectator.com/article/ten-ways-trump-is-controlling-us-all/?edition=us