Iran vs. Israel vs. China, and the "Unsettled" Science at the Heart of Russian Global Strategy
Friday Flashpoint: March 13, AD2026
Related previous posts
Western factoid: The biogenic theory, or biotic theory, posits that petroleum and natural gas are formed from the remains of ancient marine organisms, like plankton and algae, buried under layers of sedimentary rock. Over millions of years, the combination of intense heat and high pressure chemically transforms this organic matter into the liquid and gaseous hydrocarbons we extract today. So, oil is a “fossil fuel.”
First a return to an older story. Ten months later, after some White South Africans “fled genocide” are others heading back to South Africa?
Reuters is reporting that White South Africans are returning home, going back to the country committing “genocide” against them. First, because there is no genocide, it was a lie all along, and second, because the grass is not greener in the USA where the streets are no longer paved with gold. The shootings of US citizens by I.C.E. in Minnesota, high cost of living, and American mass shootings are cited as the reason that White South Africans are reclaiming their citizenship, many after spending decades abroad.
I wrote about the evidence there was no genocide in South Africa back in 2025.
Date to Watch: March 31
March 31-April 2, 2026, US President Donald John Trump (aged 79) is to meet with China’s paramount leader, General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, Xi Jinping (aged 72). What happens in the Middle East war with Iran will likely determine the agenda and reception of 45/47 in China. If the meeting is called off it will be a major escalation of tension between the world’s most militarily powerful country, and the world’s greatest manufacturing power.
Oil and the Economy
American Allies in Europe are upset that the Israeli-America Iran War’s shock to the oil market has led to the US lifting some sanctions on Russian oil. Additionally, while after-the-fact rationales for the war have included weakening China due to that country’s dependence on Iran and others in the Middle East for helium and petroleum, China can get strategic resources from Russia. Additionally, the People’s Republic of China imports roughly 70% of its oil, and over 90% of that is seaborne. The current conflict in the Middle East has made Russian oil the most valuable potential asset to add to Beijing’s portfolio. Russia intends to increase Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) exports to China by 40% this year. Any increase in Russian revenue will be funneled into the war against Ukraine—Europe’s primary strategic concern.
Israeli interests and European priorities are not aligned.
For years, Qatar supplied over 80% of China’s helium. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has effectively cut this supply line. Russia’s Amur Gas Processing Plant (GPP) in Eastern Siberia is nearing full capacity. It is now the largest helium production facility in the world, designed to process 42 billion cubic meters of gas a year. China is the world’s second-largest user of helium, largely because of its massive semiconductor fabrication plants. Helium has the highest thermal conductivity of any gas. In chip making, it is used to conduct heat away from silicon wafers during the manufacturing process, preventing them from warping or cracking. If harming China was indeed the goal of the war against Iran, then Israel may have revealed its intention to join the US in anti-China actions in September when Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, accused China of trying to “politically blockade” the Jewish state. This accusation prompted China to publicly note that it was “concerned” that Israel saw China’s actions that way. China will likely be wary of Israel in the future and may—in classic Chinese style—seek subtle ways to retaliate.
You know that colorful chart of elements hanging on every chemistry classroom wall? The one with the squares and letters that most of us just used as a giant cheat sheet to pass 10th grade. It was invented in 1869 by a man named Dmitri Mendeleev. He’s the father of modern chemistry. Yes, he invented the periodic table you learned in school. He helped establish the first oil refinery in Russian history for the Romanovs. But he also had a deep Tsarist scientific secret that shapes Russian policy today: he said oil was not a fossil fuel. Then during the Cold War, the USSR took that secret. And ran with it.
That’s the Friday Flashpoint for this week, additional analysis for member subscribers below.
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