Ukraine must prepare to fight alone with no restraint, or submit

“Or what king, going to make war against another king, does not sit down first and consider whether he is able with ten thousand to meet him who comes against him with twenty thousand? Or else, while the other is still a great way off, he sends a delegation and asks conditions of peace.”

Jesus of Nazareth, Luke 14:31-32, NKJV

I teach conflict and cultural studies using history. My masters is in British military history during the Irish Troubles and my doctorate is on the socio-political transformation of American caused by the requirements of the New Deal and WWII. All that to say, I take war very seriously. When people ask what I do, I often say, “I teach about the organized and premeditated slaughter of other human beings and its consequences.” Sometimes, people blanch, more often they ask, “What do you mean?” “War, I mean, that is what war is, isn’t it? It is our saying that killing these folks is best to achieve our policy and we want to kill them as effectively as possible with as little risk as possible to our getting killed, but not in a way that backfires and causes us more harm than good.”

War is about being the most effective killer and doing it in a way that makes the other side do what you want. War is brutal, war is horrible, war is saying “we will hit you until you comply.” In Ukraine’s case it has to make a choice: ask Putin what deal he wants, or, with no guarantee of American support, it must tell Russia “We will hurt you until you leave our country.” Those are the options.

Ukraine is a unique country with a diverse religious population fighting against the Russian invasion. Catholics, Orthodox, ex-Communist atheists, Muslim Tartars and Jewish Ukrainians.

Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal is of Jewish ancestry and his predecessor as prime minister was practicing. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is also of Jewish ancestry. Ukraine became the only country other than Israel to have a Jewish president and prime minister simultaneously. This led some on the American right to champion Zelenskyy in the past, and others to attack him with veiled antisemitism. There are those who are uncomfortable with the scene of a Jewish president at war being humiliated by a German descended US president . When Zelenskyy was elected it caused anxiety for many Jewish Ukrainians who feared that if anything went wrong, he would be blamed as “a Jew” rather than as a regular political leader. The Russo-Ukrainian War produces many emotions in Americans. Some see the Cold War nightmare come to life and others see a waste of American money provoked by Bill Clinton and Obama/Biden overreach with NATO expansion by the former and the latter’s support of the 2014 Euromaidan movement protests against pro-Russia Ukrainian President Yanukovych leading to his ousting, and Russia invading and annexing Crimea. To them war is Joe Biden’s fault, really.

But on the battlefield, none of this matters. The reality is that Ukraine has never truly solidified its post-Soviet identity. When the war broke out many young men fled the country rather than fight to save it. A fully mobilized and conscripted Ukraine would massively outnumber Russia on the battlefield, but too many young men are abroad refusing to serve. In earlier generations, you could have called them cowards and shamed them into doing their duty, but generations of Soviet Communism morally wrecked the country that continues to face high corruption, and, before the 2022 Russian invasion, was rated more corrupt than Russia. This makes the defense waged by the fighting Ukrainians all the more impressive and desperate.

Becoming dependent on Joe Biden meant becoming dependent on the US president. There has been a personnel change.

The questions Zelenskyy must answer are:

1. Can you beat Russia without America? Y/N. If Yes, keep fighting; if not, give Trump what he wants or make a deal with Putin on your own.

2. If you have to fight without America will the Europeans defy America and give you everything you need to win? Y/N. If Yes, keep fighting; if not, give Trump what he wants or make a deal with Putin on your own.

3. Can you win without the US or the EU? Y/N. If Yes, keep fighting; if not, give Trump what he wants or make a deal with Putin on your own.

Ukraine has to decide if it is able to hurt Putin and Russia enough that Putin orders his forces to stop and negotiates with Ukraine.

So can you beat Putin’s 20,000 with your 10,000? If not…