The Europeans and the Canadians continue to make moves that are reshaping predictions for the 21st century’s trajectory. Rather than a new American century it may be a European one. Few expected the Americans would become so unaware of the sources of their national prosperity that they would engage in actions that would resurrect their old geopolitical boogeyman: an assertive Europe.
Canada’s ambassador to the United States, Kirsten Hillman, says she will step down early next year.
This is a major departure as Canada and the United States head toward a high-stakes review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) and as bilateral trade talks remain stuck. Hillman, a trade lawyer and career diplomat who helped renegotiate the continental pact during President Donald John Trump’s first term, said there is never a “perfect time” to leave but argued this is the right moment to put in place a team that can carry the CUSMA review “through to its conclusion.”
Hillman’s tenure was eventful, spanning Covidtide and the dramatic decline in US-Canada relations in 2025. After the announcement of her departure, she was praised by US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, who called her “a class act.” Trade negotiations were disrupted in late October after Trump halted talks in anger over an Ontario-commissioned anti-tariff advertisement aired in the United States, and the review process now moving forward will determine whether Canada, the United States, and Mexico renew the pact or allow it to lapse. The Canadian federal government has no authority over the province of Ontario’s media strategy, and the US president should not expect that he can continually lash out at foreign governments and they will not retaliate. Such policies are a recipe for disaster. The enemy gets a vote, and in this case Trump has chosen to make an opponent out of Canada.
About three quarters of Canadian exports go to the USA, and Prime Minister Mark Carney aims to cut that down to 50% over the next decade by doubling non-US exports. Carney’s pivot to Europe is part of that strategy. And Europe a looks like a serious partner for trade and defense.
Europe Decoupling from Orbán and maybe Hungary
If there is one place where the European elite may wish they had not expanded to, it is the one led by Viktor Mihály Orbán. The European Union knows that Hungary does not want Ukraine in the bloc. However, the EU is moving ahead with plans for Ukraine’s accession to the European Union under Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union. It is clear from Article 49’s requirements that announcing the intention to bring Ukraine in is a challenge to Hungary.
First, after applying to join the EU, a candidate country has to get the Council of the EU to issue a positive opinion on the candidate. The next step requires the Council of the EU to vote unanimously in favor of moving forward with negotiations. That means that Hungary has a veto, and yet the EU apparatus is ignoring that reality and moving forward to set the stage for Ukrainian membership, including a ten-point plan to make Ukraine a suitable candidate.
The following is a condensed version of the list of reforms Ukraine must implement that was issued Dec. 10, 2025, by Marta Kos, the European Commissioner for Enlargement, and Taras Kachka, the Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine:
Adopt comprehensive amendments to the Criminal Procedure Code and other legislation to ensure fast and high-quality justice…
Ensure that NABU (National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine) has effective access to impartial, timely and high-quality forensic examinations.
Conduct a comprehensive review of the selection and dismissal procedure of the Prosecutor General, with a view to aligning it with European best practice with the involvement of the Venice Commission.
Adopt a law, in line with European standards and after consultation with the Venice Commission, to ensure a transparent and merit-based selection process, appointments and transfers for prosecutors to managerial positions and other prosecutorial positions in the Prosecutor General’s Office, regional and district prosecutor’s offices, including clear criteria and a transparent, competitive, and meritocratic selection procedure that includes an assessment of professional competence and integrity.
Reform the State Bureau of Investigation (SBI): Conducting an independent comprehensive review of the SBI’s institutional framework…
Appoint without delays internationally vetted judges to the Constitutional Court and members of the High Council of Justice.
Extend, in close cooperation with the European Commission as regards the modalities, the involvement of international experts in the selection commission for the High Qualification Commission of Judges (HQCJ).
Adopt the draft law on declarations of integrity of judges clarifying the content of the declarations, expansion of the time period covered, and improvement of the verification procedure…
Adopt the Anti-Corruption Strategy and the State Anti-Corruption Program by Q2 2026 and ensure high level of implementation.
Develop and strengthen internal control systems against high level corruption,
(bold in the original)
I have written about this before, but you may have noticed a theme in the ten EU requirements on Ukraine. The real problem is that as much as the West does not like Russia, Ukraine is more corrupt than Russia. Corruption has hobbled the Ukrainian war effort; if it was a less corrupt country, Russia’s war effort would have run into more trouble than it has already.
“Ukraine doesn’t need Hungary to do the reforms. It is a transformational process for the benefit of the whole country,”
— Marta Kos, the European Commissioner for Enlargement
In 2022, as part of the propaganda to bolster Volodymyr Oleksandrovych Zelenskyy and treat him as a new Churchill—an unnecessary mistake, as Russiaphobia was enough to rally the West—Ukrainian corruption was ignored and forgotten. This was not good for the Ukrainian war effort because it meant that bad actors were allowed to burrow deeper into the state and take advantage of all the aid being thrown their way. The black market did very well.
There is a new edge in the way the Europeans speak. They are getting tough on Ukraine’s corruption and hardening their stance toward Hungary, behaving in a way they think threatens the interests of Europe. The EU’s actions lead to a conclusion that they expect to cow Orbán into submission or that he will lose the power to block Ukrainian membership either by losing the upcoming Hungarian elections or by other changes in how the EU operates. It is more likely that anti-Orbán European elites will do what they can to ensure his Fidesz party loses the elections expected in April 2026.
The EU realizes that there needs to be a political addendum to the military solution for Ukraine, which means EU membership will be part of a long-term European military response to Russia. Vladimir Putin may have been able to largely neutralize the USA as a dedicated foe, but he has done so to his peril. The US interest in Ukraine was always limited, as former president Barack Hussein Obama II recognized: in a contest between the USA and the Russian Federation, the Russians would always be willing to escalate more than the USA because they care more about Ukraine.
Fair enough. However, the Poles will care just as much as the Russians. The Swedes will, too. As will the Romanians, etc. The USA is across the Atlantic; the European Union is right there in the neighborhood. An assertive Europe that feels the need to operate independently of the Americans and, lacking the American nuclear umbrella, will turn to France to lead the effort to defend Europe from the menace to the East. France has always been ready to lead Europeans who wish to shelter under the protection of Paris.
Putin and Trump may be accidentally reassembling Napoleon’s Europe. French President Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron has for years positioned himself for role as Europe’s defender. With a year and half left in his presidency, and with domestic politics partially gridlocked, Macron has his chance to focus on foreign affairs as the shield of Europe.
I will defend France, its vital interests, its image, its message, I make the commitment before you.
I will defend Europe, the community of destiny that the peoples of our continent have given themselves.
It is our civilization that is at stake, our way of living, of being free, of carrying our values, our joint ventures and our hopes. I will work to strengthen the link between Europe and the peoples who form it, between Europe and the citizens.
I address on your behalf to the nations of the world the salvation of fraternal France.
——Emmanuel Macron on the evening of his election to the French presidency, May 5, 2017