Steel > Iron, Israel Tests Trump's Global Order, Americans Quiet Quitting of Israel, European Defense Bets On Itself, and Pakistan's Bomb is a Saudi Umbrella?

September 19, AD 2025

Iron Dome is Israel’s frontline air defense system, built to intercept short-range rockets, artillery shells, and drones. Developed by Israel’s Rafael Advanced Defense Systems with U.S. funding support, it became operational in 2011 and has since been credited with saving thousands of lives. The system uses mobile batteries, each with radar units to detect incoming fire and interceptor missiles to destroy threats in the air before they reach populated areas. What makes Iron Dome distinctive is its selectivity: the radar calculates where each rocket will land, and it only fires if the target is a city, base, or critical infrastructure. This makes it more efficient and less costly than trying to shoot down every launch.

In conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah, Iron Dome has claimed interception rates above 85–90%, making it one of the most combat-tested missile defense systems in the world. Its success has also made it an export product and a political symbol—proof of Israel’s technological edge.

Israel’s Aid Dilemma Could Become America’s Next Campaign Flashpoint

The current U.S.–Israel military aid agreement, a 10-year memorandum signed in 2016, runs out in 2028. That deadline sounds distant, but in practice it means the next two years are decisive. Unless Israel secures a new deal soon, the question of renewing billions in U.S. military support could spill directly into the presidential campaign season of 2027–28.

That timing matters. Public opinion in the United States is shifting in ways that make unconditional aid a riskier issue than in the past. Younger Americans—including not only secular Democrats but also younger Christian conservatives—are increasingly skeptical of military support. Polls show a steady erosion in support for Israel, with many voters questioning whether American weapons should continue to flow without conditions.

Israel has to be concerned about a potential worst case scenario where the politics of aid become toxic for American politicians. Potential 2028 presidential candidates serving in Congress or in the Trump administration would be forced to take explicit stands on aid to Israel in a climate where neither party can assume the support of its voters on the issue. Governors and out-of-office hopefuls might dodge the issue, but sitting members of Congress would face unavoidable votes or debates. What was once a bipartisan consensus could fracture into a campaign liability.

Here is the strategic cost: Prime Minister Netanyahu’s choices in recent years—especially the conduct of the Gaza war—have weakened American support across party lines. If the result is a stalled or reduced aid package, Israel risks not only political isolation but also uncertainty over access to the American weapons it has long relied on. That is a game changer.

Two things can be true at once: many among the American elite think Israel remains a vital ally in a turbulent region, and the regular American voter is increasingly weary of open-ended commitments abroad. The danger is that a delayed negotiation allows this tension to harden into a wedge issue just as the next presidential cycle heats up.

Foreign Policy Problems for the American “Order”

The United States suffered a series of foreign policy setbacks that have not received appropriate attention from the American public, who have been overwhelmed by news related to fallout from the murder of right-wing activist Charlie Kirk.

America was rejected by the Danes. Denmark is choosing to buy French and Italian defense missiles instead of the Patriot system. The US president is seen as unreliable and this will hurt the US defense sector and the manufacturing jobs associated with it.

Nationalism is not a Western, European, or American exclusive. South Koreans are angry at the treatment of its nationals who were arrested by US immigration agents at a Hyundai-LG factory in the State of Georgia. The Koreans claim guns were drawn on them and people back in South Korea are demanding their government stand up to the disrespect. $350 billion of investment in the USA by South Korea may be put on hold in retaliation.

America’s Middle East Woes

By backing Israel seemingly no matter what the government of Binyamin Netanyahu does, the United States has given the impression that that the attack on Qatar is okay and that Israel may defy the US security umbrella. While supporters of Israel will frame the Israeli attack on Hamas as an attack that happened in Qatar and not one on Qatar, the world disagrees. The attack was the violation of the air space of Qatar, and the killing of individuals in Qatar, and the destruction of a building in Qatar and it is Qatar that has to deal with the rubble. Israel has embarrassed the United States President Donald John Trump.

Qatar is asking for a new “enhanced” defense agreement with the United States, while left unsaid it appears to be a desire for a clear American response plan to future attacks by Israel. The ruler of Qatar, Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani was clear, however, that the Israel attack “expedites the need for a renewed strategic defense agreement between us and the United States.” How should that be viewed?

No country that cannot develop its own radar and air defense system can look to its future with confidence in the face of current security challenges, especially in our region. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, August 2025

Pakistan’s Big Bomb Brotherhood. Saudi Arabia has signed an unprecedented defense agreement with Pakistan. Pakistan is the only Muslim nuclear power. Saudi Arabia is the wealthiest Muslim state in the world, with a more than $1Trillion economy. The former head of the Pakistani Senate’s defense committee was clear that the deal is an exchange of economic infusion for military support. India will have to be concerned because Pakistani economic dysfunction is a strategic weakness that gives India an advantage along with its manpower. But if Pakistani military power is paired with Saudi funding, then Pakistan can build a larger more sophisticated force to field against India while potentially replacing the USA as the nuclear protector of the Saudi monarchy. Additionally, the deal could lead to a transfer of nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia which would grant it the ability to make energy policy with more independence from the USA.

The Defense Minister of Pakistan has said the nuclear program could be made available to Saudi Arabia.

Dramatic black and white oil painting of a man in shock

Kallol Bhattacherjee, foreign affairs journalist at The Hindu, one of the oldest and best respected newspapers in India blames the Israeli attack on Qatar for bringing Saudi Arabia and Pakistan closer together.

French President Emmanuel Macron said Israel was destroying its international reputation.

The French President also said that he will recognize the State of Palestine to separate the Palestinian people as victims, from Hamas as a organization. How this will work is unclear, but it may mean something along the lines of condemning Israeli military operations in Gaza as being against the State of Palestine and not against Hamas and organizing international opposition to the war against “Palestine.”

Despite all the warning signs Israeli officials were supposedly shocked when visiting the USA in September to find that Republicans and Democrats are now concerned that Israel is angering their constituents.

43% of Americans think Israel is committing genocide according to a YouGov/Economist poll, and according to Quinnipiac is 50%!

Internationally, America is being blamed for enabling Netanyahu’s war, the Israeli opposition is worried that Netanyahu is ruining Israel’s story as a successful democracy in the Middle East, and many young Americans fear their country being labelled as complicit in Israeli activity. This is problem for US supporters of Israel, especially those who wish to engage students and who think peace can be achieved between Palestinians and Israelis.

Türkiye (Turkey), successor to the once-dominant Ottoman Empire, commands the most powerful military in the Middle East today. Its army dwarfs others in manpower, its drone program—having studied the Russo-Ukrainian war closely—has adapted to the new rules of modern warfare, and its missile production lines are running at a scale no neighbor can match. Unlike others in the region, Türkiye is no longer waiting on foreign suppliers—it is building its own shield and its own deterrent. That reality should unsettle those who assumed Israel would always set the pace. As relations between Ankara and Jerusalem fracture, the question is no longer whether Türkiye can catch up, but how it will choose to use the advantage it already holds.

Türkiye has cut trade ties with Israel. Rear Adm. Zeki Aktürk, the Defense Ministry spokesperson, has warned that Israel is reckless enough to drag the entire region—including Türkiye—into war. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who has ruled as prime minister and now president since 2002, will not be intimidated. Yet he is concerned that if Israel is willing to strike Qatar, it might strike Türkiye as well, given that Hamas leaders have been welcomed there.

But would Netanyahu risk striking Türkiye, a NATO member? If he did, and President Donald Trump failed to respond, it could mark the collapse of the NATO alliance and the permanent weakening of American power globally. Erdoğan is not waiting to find out. He has a plan to deter Israel—and it is called Steel Dome.

Çelik Kubbe The neo-Ottoman Steel Dome?