Should Virginia Democrats be hopeful for GOP wreck as MAGA turns on black LT Governor Winsome Sears?
What's happening in the race for governor in Virginia
Contemporary Correspondence is an occasional History Wars feature that examines how history and identity conflicts impact current events but without a history lesson focus.
From 2022-2023, a remarkable thing happened. All the mid-Atlantic Lt. Governors were black Republicans: Maryland, North Carolina, and Virginia. Then, in 2024, Donald Trump won 16% of black voters and critically won over 20% of black men. It seemed that a new multiracial GOP was ascendant and would put the Democrats on the defensive for a generation. Alas, for the Republicans, the cracks have already appeared.
First, there was the claim by J.D. Vance that “DEI” - often coded by agitators to mean putting unqualified minorities, usually African Americans, into positions - was responsible for the tragic crash of American Eagle flight 5342 and a US Army helicopter because “DEI” was causing the FAA to turn away people, meaning qualified whites. Then, there was J.D. Vance’s defense of unapologetic racism by a staffer in the administration’s efficiency organization. The Democrats will argue that meanness has been inserted into efforts to cut the federal bureaucracy that employs many non-whites. They will position this as smugness that reminds many of the bigotry in Woodrow Wilson’s —ironically, he was a Democrat — treatment of non-white federal employees. Additionally, the Democrats will try to present the administration as resentful after four years out of the White House and argue that J.D. Vance and many associated with the administration appear to relish stepping up to the line of racism and, on occasion, crossing it. Some Democrat aligned commentators who were hard on Biden-Harris have also attacked J.D. Vance and behaving in a way they believe treats politeness and introspection as weaknesses. Simply put, the Democrats are looking for angles of attack.
With Democratic voters reeling from the pace of the new Republican administration’s executive actions, the Democratic Party is searching for a win. They need one; they are desperate for one. They may have found it in Virginia, which currently has Republicans in all three statewide state government offices. Virginia has a white governor, a Jamaican-American lieutenant governor, and a Latino attorney general. Virginia is the only state to forbid governors from serving consecutive terms, so Glenn Youngkin is out in 2026, meaning the election this year is an open seat. Former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger is the front-runner for the Democratic nomination for governor and is currently unopposed. The incumbent Lt. Governor, Winsome Sears, the first black woman to win statewide office in Virginia, is the hand-picked successor of Governor Youngkin and the natural one to rally behind because of her incumbency. Likewise, in a woman versus woman contest, having the GOP candidate be a black-Jamaican immigrant and former Marine is a favorable contrast for the GOP. Yet, there is a campaign to outflank Winsome Sears from the right. Activists are pushing for the relatively unknown former state legislator Dave LaRock to challenge Sears for the nomination.
Why? LaRock to the few who have heard of him, LaRock is known primarily for getting into trouble with ill-chosen words that some called racist, though it is likely it was from true ignorance and that he was confused. He is also known for his odd legal problems with his neighbors, and most crucially, he was in the vicinity of the capital on Jan 6, though he later condemned the attacks while still questioning the 2020 election. Because US Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky did not take action after Jan 6, LaRock and other officials who were there emerged relatively unscathed. And that seems to be LaRock’s appeal. He is a 2020 Biden victory denier and is hoping to use Lt. Governor Sear’s 2022 refusal to endorse Donald Trump for 2024 against her, despite the fact that she has been supportive of the president since his victory in the GOP primary.
Sears has politely accepted the challenge, but others note that given the racial tensions in the GOP and especially the unpopularity of the president in Virginia, it is unwise for the MAGA wing to make this push. Additionally, if Winsome Sears is not conservative enough - she is known for posing with a firearm in her campaign pictures - then who is? The scenario could hurt the GOP with black voters in Virginia, who make up 20% of the population in the state where the first African slaves landed in the English colonies. Others, however, think LaRock is wasting everyone’s time and that he does not have a chance to beat Sears in a primary.
Virginia elected the first black governor since the Civil War, Democrat Doug Wilder, in 1989, and Sears is the third black Lt. Governor in Virginia. Some wonder if MAGA in power is going blow their momentum with minorities, especially black voters, and save the Democrats from themselves. Abigail Spanberger probably hopes so, as elections are often close in Virginia, and the Democrats still do not have a message beyond “Trump is bad.” Less than three percentage points decided the 2013 and 2021 gubernatorial elections. LaRock is a way to put Jan6 back in the news without appearing desperate or cynical. The Dems have to be hoping that LaRock is a bigger deal in the primary than he appears to be at the moment because any damage to Lt. Governor Sears or the GOP’s brand in the Commonwealth is a plus for Spanberger. Either way, Virginia will be the first electoral test of the second Trump administration; the Democrats will be out to win. The GOP better prepare.