Schrodinger’s Strait
Strait closes, Gaza poll opens, Europe unites, Virginia heads to court: Flashpoint Friday, April 24, AD2026
Welcome to Friday Flashpoint where I analyze and expose important historical and social developments impacting America in the world
When words are many, transgression is not lacking, but whoever restrains his lips is prudent. —Proverbs 10:19
The post 9/11 era is definitively over.
America cannot do to Iran what it did to Iraq and Afghanistan. The world sees, and middle powers will seek to imitate Iranian tactics in war and public relations. Much of the world bought George W. Bush’s claim that Iraq was a threat and joined the “Coalition of the Willing.” The current coalition is just Israel and America.
Europe is prepared to fund a war against Russia regardless of what the United States thinks. Europe was never a vassal, it was an ally. People have just learned the difference.
Israel is going from a bipartisan darling,to a pariah and possible scapegoat for administration failures. Their former advocates like Mike Huckabee are the wrong people for the job.
Democrats are done allowing Republicans to play fast-and-loose with the rules and are willing to use extraordinary procedures to respond. If this development causes the Republicans to moderate and reverse course it will be long overdue.
The Strait of Hormuz —is it open or is it closed?
Despite much boasting, social media posting, and more boasting, the United States, the world’s most powerful country, cannot enforce its will on Iran’s new military leadership. Russia and China are watching.
My fear was that the United States, by letting Israel kill Iran’s aging leadership, would replace out-of-touch clerics with Gen-X warriors who have been waiting for their shot. Iran’s days of launching perfunctory and half-hearted retaliations are over. The resurrected Iran wants to fight, avenge, and win. And to close or open the Strait at will.
The American vice president will not return to the Pakistani capital to restart talks. His standing in America continues to fall; if he tries to distance himself from POTUS’s adventures in the Middle East later, few will believe him.
On the MAGA religious front, more faith commentators are criticizing Doug Wilson, a “Christian nationalist” philosopher aligned with the administration. My question is why now? What’s happening in
Europe
The fallout from the Hungarian elections is that the EU can now back Ukraine with loans. With a united Europe, the long-term war favors Ukraine.
The contest looks like this: Russia has a population of 146m versus the European Union’s 450.6m people. Russian GDP ranks fourth in the world at $7.14trn when adjusted for purchasing-power parity (PPP); for the EU it is $30.68trn PPP. Russian military spending is $186.2bn; the EU’s combined budgets equal $424.3bn. Europe’s problem was that its power was checked by a lack of urgency and unity. That era is over.
Israel/Palestine
A city in Gaza is voting this weekend. Yes, it is only one locality, Deir al-Balah, but still this is a major development. Will the elections be secure and free? The last elections of any kind were held in 2006: Hamas won.
No Gazan under 39 has ever gotten their say about who governs them. Doing my part for peace, over the last year I have hosted three joint Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking talks on campus. The lack of Palestinian democracy comes up every time. Palestinians are sick not being asked—by Hamas, Fatah, and Israel—what they actually want.
Israel may not realize it, but it needs peace as much as the Palestinians. American support for Israel is cratering. The Democratic Party base has completely reversed its position, and Republicans will not be far behind as the anti-war faction begins to assert itself.
The Commonwealth Technicality
The Commonwealth of Virginia went to the polls and it was as close as I thought, but the Democrats won the vote to gerrymander Virginia’s Republicans into likely winning only one Congressional district in 2026. Now I think that the Republicans actually could win an additional seat if they picked a candidate with nuance and a focus on kitchen table issues and who could appeal to moderates while reassuring conservatives so they turnout to vote.
However, a Virginia circuit court in Virginia has overturned the voters, presuming to order the officers of the Commonwealth not enforce the vote, and the case will head to the Supreme Court of Virginia. The Democrats may lose the case on the technicality regarding the language of the amendment and the process they used to authorize an early referendum.
Trying to rig control of the House of Representatives a year before the midterms is partisan corruption. Texas Republicans should never have done it, and it was arrogant to suggest that Democrats should not respond. There is no principle that says when someone changes the rules in the middle of the game you have to play along.
This is not over.
