Dr. Allan Lichtman’s "Keys to the White House" model is a system for predicting U.S. presidential election outcomes, which he developed with Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, based on perceived patterns from historical election data. The model uses 13 "keys," or true/false statements, to assess whether the incumbent party in the White House is likely to win or lose the upcoming election. If six or more of the keys are false, it predicts that the incumbent party will lose; otherwise, it predicts a win. Lichtman predicted a Harris win. Were the keys wrong?
Well, these are the keys:
1. Party Mandate – After midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more House seats than it did in the previous midterm.
2. Incumbency – The sitting president is the incumbent and running for re-election.
3. Contest – There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.
4. Third Party – There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.
5. Short-term Economy – The economy is not currently in recession.
6. Long-term Economy – Real per capita economic growth is on par with or better than in the two previous terms.
7. Policy Change – The administration has made significant policy changes during its term.
8. Social Unrest – There has been no significant social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal – The administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Incumbent Charisma – The incumbent is charismatic or a national hero.
11. Challenger Charisma – The challenger is not charismatic or a national hero.
12. Foreign/Military Success – There has been a major success in foreign or military affairs.
13. Foreign/Military Failure – There has been no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
Okay here is what Lichtman himself said about 2024
https://www.usatoday.com/story/graphics/2024/09/29/allan-lichtman-election-prediction-system-explained/75352476007/
Now here’s how I read his keys:
1. Party Mandate – False, the Democrats lost seats, they had 220 House Members and went down to 213. So, 1 Point GOP.
2. Incumbency – Big False. Biden was forced out by the Democrats after a disaster of a debate. 2 Points GOP.
3. Contest – This is where I break with Lichtman, there was a serious challenge from RFK, and the Democrats worked to stop there being a real primary. Then they did it again instead of having a brokered convention. They did not avoid a primary challenge. They threw out the rule book. They basically silenced dissent by force, not persuasion. So this should be False and another Point to the GOP because whether or not there is a contest is about whether or not there is a party coalition unity. There wasn’t. So 3 Points GOP.
4. Third Party – True, One Point for the Democrats, but RFK instead joined Trump so…
5. Short-term Economy – Inflation, Inflation, Inflation. 4 Points to GOP.
6. Long-term Economy – I repeat, Inflation, Inflation, Inflation, Inflation, Inflation, Inflation. 5 Points to GOP.
7. Policy Change – True. 2 Points to Dems.
8. Social Unrest – Were the campus protests a big deal or not? And if social unrest includes social media, which is where a lot of people now live their public lives rather than in person, I argue that this is a false key for the Democrats. So 6 points GOP, which is enough to win.
9. Scandal – Ignoring Hunter Biden? Ignoring the hiding of the President’s condition? Okay, what counts as a scandal now? I would say that to the average non-partisan American, these are scandals. So, 7 Points to the GOP.
10. Incumbent Charisma – No. Points to the GOP = 8
11. Challenger Charisma – Yes. Points to the GOP =9
12. Foreign/Military Success – The American world order in Eastern Europe and the Levant is on fire, and the border crisis is a foreign policy problem as well as a domestic one. Lichtman would not say whether Biden had a foreign policy success, but I think the answer is no. Points to the GOP = 10
13. Foreign/Military Failure – Again, the world is on fire, and Lichtman would not say it. And, the Afghanistan withdrawal debacle was not forgotten. Points to the GOP = 11
So 11 points, well they point to a Trump victory. Was Lichtman wrong, or was he unwilling to say what folks did not want to hear? Either way, I disagree with his reading of his formula.
Trump won the keys to the White House and is moving back in.
I think Lichtman wanted these things to be true. One of the challenges of living in an echo chamber is that it was easy for him to have his biases confirmed too.
The academic pundits and the old media are "bought and paid for" by the left -- the echo chamber silences all dissent. But even more importantly, The Boston-DC corridor and the left coast with a couple of isolated urban clones of those areas think they are the country, they are as ignorant of rural counties as they are of Gitega (you'll have to look that up). They couldn't find Newton County Missouri on a map and think even less of it. Ignorance is forgivable, but they are not even curious about the terra icognito surrounding them. The reverse is not true, the country people actually visit the cesspools that are the urban areas of America, the country "bumpkins" go shopping there, because the elite class has destroyed the economy of rural America, sometimes the rural "scum" even read or watch the media, so they know the echo chamber, they don't generally like it, but they know it and have a workable knowledge of it. The converse is not true. The folks at Charlies Grill probably made better predictions of the race than pundits, pollsters, and media moguls.
But perhaps more importantly is that Trump and his folks like, no, they love America and Americans and not just the rural folks. I am increasingly convinced that the elites despise America and Americans, they look down on whites, they look down blacks, they look down on hispanics, they think the average American man is toxic, the average American woman stupid. The people around Trump, JD, RFKjr, Nicole Shanahan, Vivek, Tucker, Elon, Joe Rogan and many others genuinely love their fellow Americans and they tend to see us as Americans, not white, black, hispanic, men or women, just as fellow Americans. They know we're diverse but they also know that we are more alike than we are different.
The left, yeah not so much. Now it's up to Americans of all stripes to start seeing each other as Americans, more alike than different. It's either that or the American experiment dies at the age of 240 years.