Math not Mathing, But Its Not The Maths
Don't Call Bluffs Unless You Are Carrying The Higher Hand
The Democrats called the bluff of their disappointed voters and found out they were not bluffing. But they were not the only ones feeling a bit of fatigue.
So, I guess the conspiracies about the difference between the 2020 vote total and the 2024 vote are going around. And while I covered it earlier, I think I need to write just a little bit more for perspective. There are more than just the Democrats and Republicans to consider. Here is what I found looking around the country. Let’s start with Trump versus Harris.
There’s an argument that Harris would have won if she matched Joe Biden’s numbers in 2020. There are those arguing that she did fine. Is that true? I went state by state.
Going South to North
Georgia 16 Electoral Votes
Biden 2,473,633
Trump 2,461,854 2020
Trump 2,660,655 2024
Harris 2,543,483
Verdict: Small increase for both. But Trump’s numbers are higher than Biden 2020.
North Carolina 16 Electoral Votes
Trump 2,758,775
Biden 2,684,292
Trump 2,875,538 2024
Harris 2,683,995
Verdict: There is a small increase for Trump and a small decrease for Harris from Biden. But Trump’s numbers are higher than Biden 2020.
Pennsylvania had 20 Electoral Votes in 2020 but 19 in 2024
Biden 3,458,229
Trump 3,377,674
Trump 3,480,718 2024
Harris 3,345,377
Verdict: There is an increase for Trump and a decrease for Harris from Biden. But Trump’s numbers are higher than Biden 2020.
Michigan had 16 Electoral Votes in 2020; 15 Electoral Votes in 2024
Biden 2,804,040
Trump 2,649,852
Trump 2,809,330 2024
Harris 2,731,316
Verdict: There is an increase for Trump and a decrease for Harris from Biden. But Trump’s numbers are barely higher than Biden's 2020.
Wisconsin 10 Electoral Votes
Biden 1,630,866
Trump 1,610,184
Trump 1,697,514
Harris 1,667,990
Verdict: Small increase for both. But Trump’s numbers are higher than Biden 2020.
Arizona 11 Electoral Votes
Biden 1,672,143
Trump 1,661,686
Trump 1,303,793
Harris 1,167,898
Verdict: They are not done counting in Arizona, but so far Biden numbers still win. Maybe a decrease for both. We will not know until Arizona completes its count, but it should not take this long, and the federal government needs to review Arizona's procedures.
Nevada 6 Electoral Votes
Biden 703,486
Trump 669,890
Trump 719,406
Harris 671,678
Verdict: They basically reversed numbers with slight increases for the winner and loser of the vote. But Trump’s numbers are higher than Biden 2020.
So, the vote total in swing states increased slightly from 2024. I mean barely; it should be more if the turnout were even. So why do I think people stayed home and that the argument Harris lost too many Biden voters holds credence? Because between 2003 and 2006, 16.6 million babies were born in the USA and would be first-time presidential voters in 2024. Not just that, approximately 3-4 million immigrants became citizens from 2021-2024, and while there were about 12 million deaths during the same period, there should be about 10 million new voters in 2024. There should be millions more votes in the tally just from that. So again, the math looks like a lot of people really did stay home, and the margins are close enough that the stay-at-homers determined the election. For example, even with additional votes counted in the tardy states, President-elect Donald Trump has 74,182,656, still 40K less than his 2020 total. He may top that when all ballots are counted, but not by much. Again, given normal population increases leading to new voters, and if engagement remains the same, the vote totals should be higher.
Don’t give in to the conspiracies, though. Get outside the two-party bubble. Let’s go on a little journey to third-party land.
Let’s look at the leftwing environmentalist Green Party, the Libertarian Party, and the Christian democracy-inspired American Solidarity Party.
In 2020, their votes looked like this:
Libertarian Party - Jo Jorgensen: 1,865,720 votes
Green Party - Howie Hawkins: 404,352 votes
American Solidarity Party - Brian Carroll and Amar Patel: 42,348 counted votes
But this past Tuesday, it looked like this
Green Party - Jill Stein: 643,674 votes
Libertarian Party - Chase Oliver: 575,830 voters
American Solidarity Party - Peter Sonski 24,099 counted votes
So, while the Green Party saw an increase of 240K votes, the Libertarians collapsed, barely getting more than a quarter of the votes they got in 2020. So far, the American Solidarity Party (ASP) campaign has received barely half what it got in 2024. Despite renewed interests and Donald Trump weakening the pro-life plank of the GOP, they did not benefit. They will have to do a serious internal review, but there is a larger story here. Across the board, with the exception of the Green Party, Americans who voted for independents and third parties in 2020 did not do so in 2024 and in relatively high numbers.
If it were a Democrat conspiracy from 2020 being exposed, we would not expect such a huge fall for the Libertarians or the Solidarists. The Constitution Party lost 1/3 of its voters. Look at it like this: in 2020, the third parties and independents combined received 2,922,155 votes, but in 2020, they got 2,106,585, or a decline of 800K = 27%. But neither Harris nor Trump got that many more votes than in 2020 so where did those votes go? The simplest answer is a lot of people stayed home, but their absence was felt a lot more by the Democrats. Trump kept enough old supporters and won over just the right amount of new supporters.
Low enthusiasm is the key, but the weird thing is usually, when people are frustrated with the major parties, they protest vote for the third parties. That did not happen.