Fire Hot Take Friday
The first thing we do, let's kill all the lawyers. - Dick the Butcher, Shakepeareâs Henry VI, Part II, Act 4, scene 2
Dear Reader,
âIsrael has a right to defend itselfâ is the âBlack Lives Matterâ of the neocons. It is a true statement that however creates a dissonance as alone, it provides no context for neutral hearers as to whatâs happening, leading to opponents, and uninformed bystanders, claiming âAll Lives Matterâ or to reminding Zionists that self-defense is a universal right. It is the particularism that gets you in trouble. The exhausted middle of American voters whom you need to convince donât understand why youâre being particular.
In both cases the sloganâs ability to offend and annoy should concern supporters of those causes.
I am concerned because most Americans do not like Israel anymore. I never thought that would happen.
A majority opposed Trump joining Israelâs War against Iran.
The Economist/YouGov Poll for June is instructive. Over half of Americans want to negotiate with Iran, rather than fight, and less than a quarter of Americans want to actively go to war with Iran.
Regardless of what the polls say, American attacks on Iran still happened, and they happened without Congressional approval. Many Americans are not happy.
What some call the 12-Day War, I am calling the Israeli-American Iran War, assigning the USA the secondary place. This is a problem for Israel in 2026. Bibiâs gamble is not over, it merely appears it has paid off, but Israel has achieved no long-term irreversible gains. American resentment can be a dangerous thing.
Does pro-Israel mean supporting Israeli policy even if it is self-defeating or does it mean proposing alternative policies that will ensure long-term security for Israel? This should not be an open question, but people treat it like it is.
Israel needs the USA, the USA does not need Israel, and never has. Support for Israel must be based on values, because Israelâs neighbors, enemies, and frenemies have more land, people, resources and wealth. It is not a good idea to have the alliance dependent exclusively on mercurial personalities. Which is why you want Congress on board. Unilateral executive support can be reversed at will. In a two-party system support for Israel needs to be bipartisan to be secure, and unfortunately current actions are making Israel more of a Republican cause than a bipartisan one. Long-term, thatâs a problem, which is why if Iran were ever to retaliate it should be smart and do so only against Israel and not against the United States. The smart Iranian objective should be to split the Israeli-American coalition by convincing the American people that the actions of Israel do not create a threat to the United States which must be neutralized, but rather it is a conflict that Americans can ignore. Attacking Americans in any way, shape or form would be an act of self-destruction for Iran. The question is, is Iran smart enough to behave in a way that makes Israel appear to be the unequivocal aggressor, and that allows the Democratic Party to position Iran as not being a threat to the United States? Iran would have to stop supporting groups that are antagonistic to Israel so that when Israel attacks, Iran can go before the United Nations and other international organizations and present itself is the victim of aggression. But then again the Iranians have not been very smart over the last 20 years, but, perhaps they are wising up. One can only hope that they are smart enough to realize that, ultimately, peace is in their interest.
But for the America First personalities, this week presented a complete defeat. As I said last week and predicted correctly, America First is the weakest part of the Trump GOP. It will be interesting to see how things play out as we get closer to Congressional primary season in 2026. If America Firsters cannot organize and mobilize voters, they will cease to be a major force in US politics
SCOTUS Decisions - the lawyer problem
For people who do not know, Dick, the Butcher is one of the villains. In a proper society, lawyers not only know the law, but theyâre also custodians of the law, they remember the law. It is with this consideration that I will analyze the Supreme Court decisions handed down today, in a couple of days. For a revolutionary like Dick the Butcher, you want to kill all the lawyers because then no one is left to remember how things functioned properly before. The death of the lawyers is the beginning of tyranny because it is the end of the neutral legal process. If you want liberty, you never want to kill all the lawyers, you need them.