Iron Man Trump

Voters Were Tired - But Not Equally Tired

Photo by Vince Fleming on Unsplash

The 2024 U.S. presidential election saw an unexpected drop in voter turnout yesterday, with both major candidates, Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, drawing fewer votes than their 2020 tickets. Remember, both were on the ballot in 2020, but Harris was in the number two position. So far - well, when I checked this evening - Trump received 72,560,841 votes, a slight decrease from his 2020 total of 74,223,975, while Harris’s tally cratered to 67,878,826 votes, compared to the 81,283,501 that Joe Biden brought in during the previous campaign. This decline in turnout marks a clearly shifting political climate, defined by voter fatigue, diminishing enthusiasm for the candidates, and growing public disillusionment with the whole party system. Examining these factors reveals much about the evolving landscape of American politics. But the main takeaway is Trump's folks were more ride-or-die, and he won more crossover voters.

Maybe the record turnout of the 2020 election, spurred by an exceptionally polarized political environment, proved hard to sustain. AND COVID! That terrible year, voters were galvanized and shocked into action by what they saw as a crucial moment for the nation's trajectory, as Biden and Trump offered starkly contrasting visions. But in 2024, a sense of exhaustion has set in. The constant drumming up of anxiety over high-stakes elections and relentless media coverage wore down the public’s interest. Additionally, neither Trump nor Harris managed to inspire the fervor of 2020, with Trump’s established base largely intact but not growing numerically and Harris unable to generate the broad coalition that Biden had. But perhaps the whole “it’s the most important election ever” over and over wore thin. People got tired of it. And they just stayed home. But way more Democrats apparently checked out.

Trump’s 72.5 million votes reflect a stable core of supporters, but he also attracted a lot of new non-White voters. His coalition diversified but didn’t bring in more votes. Yet, it did not need to. But a lot of people stayed home, and perhaps as GOP voters skew older, a lot more passed away between 2020 and 2024. Trump’s polarizing style may have deterred some traditional conservatives and moderates, who were left unpersuaded by his return bid. For these voters, his controversial approach and familiar rhetoric may have felt like a step back rather than the fresh direction they hoped for. But Trump won non-Whites that the GOP could not for generations. Generations, plural. In this case, he does not need the old GOP or the neocons.

Vice President Harris’s performance shows the challenges facing Democrats as they attempt to maintain the coalition that Biden built. Too much diversity. Her total of 67.8 million votes is a sharp drop from Biden’s 2020 tally. It is not signaling difficulties in rallying the diverse voter base that turned out four years prior; the difficulties are here and have arrived. The panic alarms should be going off. The iceberg was hit, and the ship sank. It went down, and the Democrats left Kamala Harris on board alone. As they say, the political consultants get paid either way. Well, they should walk the plank if the Democrats have any sense. The GOP advisors should get knighthoods; oh wait, my bad, not our system. Sorry, too much watching of the BBC.

Despite high polarization, the decline in voter turnout suggests that even deeply divided and antagonistic voters can become disengaged. Motivation by agitation Did Not Work. If political conflict continues to feel fruitless, more Americans may retreat into apathy rather than activism. The Democratic Party will need to consider how to create a political process and organization that feels both inclusive and impactful, re-engaging those who have lost faith in the non-process they had in 2024. And perhaps, both parties may need to reevaluate their approach to candidate selection and messaging before 2028. Democrats may look to refocus on issues with broad appeals, like economic stability and healthcare, while Republicans might seek a balance between Trump’s populist base and find a way to appeal to the creators and educated professionals to drive innovation and run bureaucracies. This recalibration could be crucial for winning back disillusioned voters.

But to recap:

Biden 81,283,501 Trump 74,223,975, 2020 - Biden Won

Harris 67,878,826 Trump 72,560,841 2024 - Trump Wins

Trump outlasted the Democrats. That’s amazing; it appears as of writing that rather than vote, at least 10 MILLION Americans decided to Netflix and chill.