He's Out. Trudeau Quits. Will Stay Until Successor Selected.
Canada PM, Justin Pierre James Trudeau, Resigned This Morning
As I wrote on December 28, Canada was not the liberal paradise some Americans dream of in the aftermath of Donald Trump's win in November; it is, in fact, headed for a conservative resurgence. The first step toward that reality happened this morning when the prime minister and leader of the Liberal Party, Justin Trudeau, resigned and is sending Parliament home through prorogation. Prorogation of Parliament in Canada refers to the formal suspension of a parliamentary session by the Governor-General, who is the representative of the Canadian monarch King Charles III, and is done on the advice of the Prime Minister. It effectively ends the current session of Parliament, with all unfinished business (such as bills and motions) being removed from the agenda. The House of Commons and the Senate stop sitting, and members of Parliament (MPs) and Senators return to their constituencies or other duties until a new session begins. Parliament will be prorogued until March 24.
In the meantime Liberal Party members of Parliament will start positioning themselves to run for party leader and and deciding which candidates to back. An election is like to be called soon if the Liberal Party cannot maintain control of the House of Commons. In any event, by law, Canada has to have an election by October 20, 2025, but one will be called earlier if the Liberal replacement to Trudeau fails to get the support of Parliament. The Liberals are a minority government, which means that the party does not have a majority of the seats in the Canadian House of Commons, which has 343 total seats, and you need 172 for a majority, but Trudeau’s Liberals only have 153, meaning they need 19 MPs from other political parties to support them. If those other MPs refuse to support, then they lose the confidence of the House, triggering a new election. It is one of the features that I think would help American democracy recover its dynamism and ability to govern. Here is how it works:
The principle of “responsible government” means that the Prime Minister and the Cabinet are responsible to, or must answer to, the House of Commons as a whole for their actions and must maintain the support or confidence of a majority of the members of the House to keep power. There are ways to test whether or not the PM and their government have the confidence of the House. The first is the explicit way: call a confidence vote. MPs vote yes, you have our confidence, or no, you lack our confidence. The other explicit way is when the government challenges its detractors by saying that it regards a vote for or against a particular measure as a test of confidence, basically calling their bluff. If the government’s attempt at political blackmail works, it can get a second lease on life and continue in office; if it fails, it must resign, call for new elections, and ask the people to decide. The second is the implied loss of confidence when opponents defeat the government agenda in votes on important symbolic matters of government. For example, if the government fails to pass a budget, that is an implicit loss of confidence — imagine how much more organized Congress would be if they failed to pass a budget and have to immediately run for reelection again to justify remaining on Capitol Hill — the other would be if the Parliament voted against the agenda laid out in the Throne Speech — the British throne speech is the origin of the American State of the Union Address — if you reject the agenda speech you just heard from the Governor-General or the monarch, then you implicitly lack confidence in what the government stands for.
Again, if you can’t manage the parliament, you do not get to be the government. Trudeau cannot run his party or Canada’s Parliament, so he doesn’t remain in power just because. The system corrects itself. Currently, Trudeau is polling around 20% approval, and his party is around 20 points behind the Conservative Party, run by Pierre Marcel Poilievre. The Crown of Canada is important not only because it distinguishes Canadians from Americans, monarchy versus republic, but also because the Crown retains many formal powers exercised through the governor general’s office. Governor General Mary Jeannie May Simon’s role is critical in navigating these scenarios. Acting on behalf of King Charles, on the advice of the Prime Minister, in this case, Mr. Trudeau, she will assess whether another leader, probably from the Liberal Party, can form a government with the confidence of the House or, more likely, decide to dissolve Parliament and call an election.