Donald Trump Will Not Defeat Himself
He Must Be Beaten (Post Election Update: The Democrats Could Not Do It.)
(Post-Election Update: Donald Trump won the election by making the case for himself while the Democrats focused on him instead of arguing they were the better choice.)
The distribution of Donald Trump’s voter base remains a significant advantage in the Electoral College system. His support is concentrated in states where winning the popular vote translates more effectively into electoral votes, as was evident in 2016 and 2020 and remains true for 2024. Meanwhile, Democratic strongholds like California and New York deliver large vote margins but offer diminishing returns in the Electoral College.
Donald Trump has done many things that would have sunk previous GOP nominees for president. Each time, Democrats say, "he's done it now," but each time, it turns out to be an illusion. Trump was right when he said he could get away with a lot and still win. It doesn’t have to be good, clean, or beautiful for it to be true.
Here’s a baker’s dozen of evidence that violating the old mores and standards does not sink Trump:
Firing FBI Director James Comey (2017): Trump’s dismissal of Comey during the Russia investigation raised concerns about interference with the inquiry and questions of presidential overreach.
“Both sides” comments on Charlottesville (2017): Trump’s comments after the violent white nationalist rally, suggesting “very fine people on both sides,” sparked criticism and accusations of downplaying racism.
Impeachment (2019 and 2021): Trump’s first impeachment was related to abuse of power involving Ukraine; his second followed the January 6th Capitol attack, making him the only president to be impeached twice.
Handling of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020): Trump’s downplaying of the pandemic, promotion of unproven treatments, and public disputes with health officials like Dr. Anthony Fauci drew widespread criticism for lacking a consistent response.
Challenge to the 2020 Election Results & January 6th Capitol Attack (2020-2021): Trump’s claims of a “stolen” election led to multiple lawsuits and his supporters’ storming of the Capitol, aiming to disrupt the certification of the election results. This was seen as a direct challenge to the democratic process.
2016 Feud with John McCain and a Gold Star Family: During his 2016 campaign, Trump engaged in a feud with Senator John McCain, questioning his status as a war hero by saying, “I like people who weren’t captured.” Additionally, he clashed with the Khan family, whose son, a Muslim U.S. soldier, was killed in Iraq. Trump’s disparaging remarks about the Khans' sacrifice led to widespread backlash and criticism from both Democrats and Republicans, challenging his standing among veterans and military families.
Verbally Attacking Latin American Immigrants: Trump was condemned by many for the nature of his language regarding various immigrant communities.
Allegation of Engaging with QAnon (2020): Trump’s alleged amplification of QAnon theories and willingness to embrace its followers marked a departure from typical political discourse within the GOP.
Tear Gas Use on Protesters for Photo Op (2020): The clearing of peaceful protesters near the White House for a photo at St. John’s Church with a Bible was widely condemned as a disregard for civil rights in favor of optics.
Allegations of Sexual Misconduct: Over a dozen women accused Trump of sexual misconduct, including claims that surfaced through lawsuits. In the past, such accusations might have been politically fatal for a candidate. And then, he lost the civil defamation case against Elizabeth Jean Carroll.
Bragging About Sexual Assault (2016): The release of the “Access Hollywood” tape, where Trump was heard boasting about groping women, would have previously been disqualifying, but his campaign continued without significant fallout among his base.
Very Public Allegations of adultery with a pornographer: This one speaks for itself, much like his three marriages.
Calling Media “Enemy of the People”: Trump’s repeated attacks on mainstream media outlets, labeling them as the “enemy of the people,” marked a break from the traditional GOP stance supporting a free press.
Despite these controversies, Trump’s voter base has remained remarkably steadfast. Each time, Democrats expected his downfall, but Trump’s support has persisted. His core base, the ride-or-die MAGAs, are locked down, requiring Democrats to focus on winning over Trump’s lukewarm supporters in battleground states. Trump’s electoral strength means that Democrats cannot rely on him to self-destruct. Instead, they need to actively pursue the small number of undecided voters in critical states like North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin, places where winning a plurality of the vote is key.
To achieve this, Democrats needed to adopt a dynamic strategy: moderating their message when necessary, openly breaking with certain Biden policies if required, and engaging with media outlets that might reach persuadable Trump or independent voters. Simply waiting for Trump to falter was not and is not a viable strategy; instead, Democrats need to focus on securing a decisive victory. Should the campaign of Kamala Harris fail to demonstrate that they are clearly going to beat Trump, meaning that she can win over these key demographics, the political elite may begin planning for a second Trump administration.
Take American Muslims, for instance. By the old rules Trump should not be competitive with these voters. And yet. Many are very angry about Biden’s support for Israel, which they blame for high civilian casualties in Gaza and now Lebanon. Only right-wing media and Bibi think the U.S., under President Joe Biden, has not been supportive enough of Israel. Everyone else acknowledges that Biden has been the most pro-Israel president during a time of conflict for Israelis since Richard Nixon aided them during the Yom Kippur War. As a result, many American Muslims in the swing state of Michigan are considering staying home or voting for Trump. Harris needs Michigan, and Biden’s policies are hurting her. Can she win these critical voters back?
If the Harris campaign doesn't look like it can do this, then the wealthy and connected will start making plans for a second Trump term and may even initiate plans to make that outcome more likely so that they can ingratiate themselves with the new leader. In that scenario, the focus shifts from hoping for Trump’s collapse to preparing for his return to power.
Meet the new boss, same as the old boss, only more gangsta.
Methinks, perhaps like someone else we know, we ought to pay more attention to what Trump does than to what he says. Why do I say this because, just like that someone else we know, he often speaks off the cuff without, as many politicians do not, thinking through every word as if folks didn't know him. If he was such a hater, why was it 40+ years in active business and the public spotlight before our oh so holier than thou political and media class saw his "evil?" Could it be that he was always a bit egotistical and bombastic and prone to speaking his mind, but the folks interested in gaining his approval and monetary support, didn't pay any attention? Well they didn't pay any attention until they realized that he wasn't going to dance to the "elite" tune and was instead going to champion the country people outside of the "Capital District." In a 21st Century America that represents far too closely the world of Hunger Games, Trump is to America as the Gracchi Brothers were to Ancient Rome, the elites turned on the Gracchis, who were also part of the elite of Rome, the Patrician Class, when they as Tribunes began to openly champion the Plebian Class. Hopefully if there is a second Trump administration, he now understands the levers of power more fully and can effectively undermine the rule of the elites in elected office, government administrative bureaus, and the elite media (to include the celebrity world) and end the regime of bad bread and evil circuses that has dominated American life for the past 50 years. Because if he is unable to do so, I fear that my allusion to the Hunger Games will become more than mere literary device. I don't much like DJTs style, but I despise our present elites, not for their style but for their substance. I don't think DJT had the right people around him the first time to actually work out his substance and I'll take his substance, especially when woven with the distributism of a JD Vance and Josh Hawley, the anti-Big Food and Pharma of RFKjr and Nicole Shanahan, the non-interventionism of Tulsi, and the vision of people like Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy. I don't have to be all in for DJT to be all in for #MAGA #MAHA and America and Americans First.