Dear Readers,
Peacemaking isn’t easy. But progress can be made on unexpected fronts. The world is a large and never dull place.
The United States is demanding that Russia acknowledge Ukraine's right to maintain its own military and defense industry as part of ongoing peace negotiations. Special envoy Steve Witkoff is scheduled to discuss this with President Putin, challenging Moscow's insistence on Ukrainian demilitarization. According to the Japan Times, the Russia leader is apparently not impressed as he has attacked the Ukrainian capital again.
Allies are getting tired of the breach of existing agreements. President Trump criticized the U.S.-Japan security alliance as one-sided, suggesting Japan should contribute more financially and purchase additional US weaponry. Japanese Defense Minister Gen Nakatani responded by stating there is no need to renegotiate the current cost-sharing agreement before its 2027 expiration.
US withdrawal continues as the US administration plans a 50% reduction in the State Department's budget, potentially leading to the closure of embassies and the elimination of programs like Fulbright. As a result, the US will lose its ability to influence much of the world, and this will undercut American efforts to negotiate better trade deals. China will likely gain the most from this decision, as will other US competitors. Such moves are the rejection of the spoils of American victory in the Second World War and the Cold War, and the granting of unearned opportunities to American rivals.
Critical intel is key to keeping Americans safe at home and abroad. To get that intel, America relies on networks of allies who will share information. However, as trust in the US erodes, European intelligence services express concern over the reliability of US support, especially after the Pentagon temporarily suspended intelligence sharing with Ukraine. This has led to a reevaluation of Europe's dependence on American military assistance and the wisdom of continued intelligence sharing.
Western elites fear the African and Asian Christian leaders who call out Western hypocrisy and defy neocolonial categorization. Anglican, Methodist, and Catholic leaders in Africa and Asia are challenging old hierarchies. With the death of Pope Francis, perhaps the most feared non-Western leader is Roman Catholic Cardinal Robert Sarah, according to The Spectator. By the chance timing of Francis’s passing, Cardinal Sarah is 79 and still able to join in on the Conclave to elect the next Roman pontiff; cardinals lose their voting rights when they turn 80, and Cardinal Sarah’s birthday is June 15. He is considered a unique problem because, as a Guinean, he is what is commonly called a “black African,” and he opposes mass immigration in the West on explicitly religious grounds, not racial ones. Which makes his stance provocative to European countries like France, which are divided over mass migration, but unable, due to their secularism, to explain their unease in terms that do not come off as racist. And yet the European far-right does not want to embrace what a true return to Christian values and civilization may look like. Which is why, if conservative Catholics could have their way, Cardinal Sarah would have been pope a while ago. But actually becoming pope seems like a long shot, and he is not a favorite.
Rwanda, despite being landlocked, acts as a mineral hub mainly by overland trucking and air freight. Congolese minerals, often mined informally or illegally in eastern DRC, are smuggled across the border into Rwanda, especially through the city of Goma into Gisenyi. From there, minerals are transported by road to Kigali, where they are processed or reclassified under Rwandan export paperwork. From Kigali’s international airport — a well-maintained, modern facility — high-value minerals like coltan, gold, and tungsten are flown out to markets in Europe, Asia, and the United States. This mix of road transport and air export allows Rwanda to punch far above its weight as a critical player in the global mineral supply chain. Consequently, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda are strategically important to the American economy because they sit at the heart of global supply chains for critical minerals essential to modern technology and defense. The DRC holds vast reserves of cobalt, copper, and coltan — key ingredients in electric vehicle batteries, smartphones, renewable energy systems, and military equipment — making it indispensable for America's green energy transition and technological competitiveness. Rwanda, though smaller, acts as a stable logistical hub, facilitating the export of Congolese minerals and offering a reliable partner in a volatile region. As the US seeks to counter China's dominance in African mining and secure its supply chains for national security and economic resilience, maintaining access to these minerals through influence in Rwanda and the DRC has become a strategic imperative, echoing past American efforts to control critical resources in times of global competition.
Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo have been in a low-grade war, with Congo accusing Rwanda of backing the M23 rebel group that seized territory in eastern DRC. Despite multiple ceasefires, fighting has continued for years, destabilizing the mineral-rich region and souring relations between the two neighbors. The M23 is a rebel group made up mostly of Congolese Tutsis that claims to fight for minority rights but has become a major force destabilizing eastern Congo, often acting as a proxy for Rwandan interests in the region. Rwanda backs the M23 because it sees them as a buffer against hostile armed groups in eastern Congo, especially the FDLR, an armed force founded by remnants of the Hutu forces responsible for the 1994 Rwandan genocide, which Rwanda views as an ongoing existential threat across its western border. To Rwanda, the DRC’s protection of the genocidaires, men who killed one million Rwandans in 100 days, is intolerable, and so for decades, Rwanda supported groups like M23 in retaliation. Congo granted the Hutu genocidaires safe haven after 1994, as, after the Rwandan genocide, hundreds of thousands and perhaps a million Hutus, including civilians, soldiers, and militias, flooded into eastern Congo (then Zaire), overwhelming the corrupt and weakening government of Mobutu Sese Seko. Mobutu saw the Hutu forces as potential allies to maintain his hold on power against internal threats. Instead of disarming or separating the genocidaires from the refugees, Mobutu allowed them to reorganize, rearm, and set up bases, which prompted interventions from the new Rwandan government that had ended the genocide.
On April 25, 2025, Rwanda and the DRC signed a U.S.-brokered agreement in Washington, committing to draft a peace deal by May 2 and to cease support for armed groups, notably the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels. This initiative, overseen by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, aims to stabilize eastern Congo, the area mentioned earlier as being rich in critical minerals like cobalt, tantalum, and gold. The agreement also proposes establishing a joint security coordination mechanism to address armed and criminal groups in the area. While the deal raises hopes for peace and increased US investment, previous ceasefires have failed to bring lasting stability to the region.
However, with the US pulling back from diplomatic initiatives in Africa, the strategy of the US administration again appears contradictory and haphazard. As at least 50% of the world’s cobalt reserves are in the Congo-Rwanda region, the US is at risk of being outmaneuvered over time as China steps up its diplomatic engagement across Africa, establishing firmer ties with many of the neighbors and partners of Rwanda and the DRC. Cobalt plays a critical role in powering the green economy by enhancing the energy density, stability, and longevity of rechargeable batteries, especially those used in electric vehicles, renewable energy storage systems, and consumer electronics. Its unique properties help deliver efficient, reliable, and sustainable energy solutions, supporting global efforts to reduce emissions across transportation, industry, and power generation. As demand for clean technologies grows, cobalt remains a vital material for building a low-carbon future, making it strategically important for both environmental goals and economic competitiveness.
It is also a lesson about the problems with Africa’s giants. Rwanda is a comparatively small country with fewer resources, but through determination, it has built a powerful military and has the lowest crime rate in Africa. In 2022, Euro News reported that Rwanda was rated the sixth safest country on Earth for travelling alone. In Congo, the story is not the same.
As of 2023, the DRC had a nominal GDP of approximately $66 billion and a GDP per capita of about $660, placing it among the world's lowest in per capita income. While many want to blame the legacy of colonialism, that excuse is wearing thin. Yes, the Europeans, especially Belgium, left Congo in a disastrous state: no real administrative training and a history of shameful colonial brutality. But the Belgians left 65 years ago. Since then, Congolese leaders, from Mobutu to his successor Kabila, to today's elites, have had decades of opportunities to build institutions, invest in education, and unite the country. In that same period, Singapore became an economic superstar. Instead, leaders of the DRC chose corruption, personal enrichment, ethnic favoritism, and short-term power games over nation-building. Given global dependence on cobalt alone, the DRC should be far wealthier and more powerful. The DRC’s dysfunction can be exploited by China or Russia if the US disengages. It is in America’s interest for them to get their act together, but America cannot do it for them; the DRC has to get serious.
Rwanda should not stand a chance. Look at the tale of the tape: the DRC is about 900K square miles. Rwanda is about 10K square miles. The DRC is roughly 90 times bigger than Rwanda in land area. In terms of population, the DRC has about 100 million people, while little Rwanda has about 14 million. Yet Rwanda is the one with the powerful forces. Rwanda is tiny compared to Congo, but Rwanda is basically African Prussia, an irony as the Rwandans were first colonized by Germany, which founded Kigali in 1907. In a continent often defined by chaos, Kigali is the rare city where order reigns. The Rwandans made a better choice. Hopefully, the peace holds, and the DRC can learn from the Rwandan example.