Albertan Secessionism and the American Founders Canadian Exception
Friday Flashpoint: May 22 AD2026
Welcome to Friday Flashpoint where I analyze and expose important historical and social developments impacting America in the world
At times it is astounding the degree to which the main American news networks are disinterested in major events unfolding in other countries that could have major consequences for the United States. Canada is the most important neighbor of the United States, and in many ways the most important foreign relationship for the US. Yet, for the vast majority of American citizens, Canadian politics is opaque—that is, if they consider Canada at all. However, Canada is in the middle of important debates over how to engage the United States during the remainder of Donald John Trump’s time as president. A pressing question is the relationship of Canadian conservative parties to MAGA and to the Wexit (Western Exit) secessionist movements within Canada.
Alberta, one of the three prairie provinces of western Canada, is led by a Conservative Party divided over whether the province should remain Canadian. Marlaina Danielle Smith, the premier—the prime minister of a Canadian province—leads the United Conservative Party, holding 48 out of the 87 seats in the Legislative Assembly, the parliament of the province of around four million people. Smith is trying to keep her job by placating secessionists who believe that the oil-rich province is being exploited by the Canadian federal government.
These Albertan separatists imagine they could become an independent petro-state with low taxes and survive off their oil exports. Some of them envision joining the United States as the 51st state because of differences between the American and Canadian social-welfare states and the way they do federalism. They think America would be a better deal. There are enough separatist influences in conservative politics to potentially bring down Smith’s governing mandate, so she has devised a way to keep them happy without angering the over 70% of Albertans who polls show want to stay in Canada. Alberta is in for an exciting summer.
Smith has announced a two-option, non-binding independence question for October 19, 2026.
Should Alberta remain a province of Canada or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?
This will be part of a broader referendum that has fractured support among her own conservative base while uniting Canadian nationalist critics against her. In a move that seems like she is copying former British Prime Minister David Cameron’s approach to the anti-EU members of his party regarding the vote on Brexit, Smith has called the referendum and announced she will actively campaign for Option One—to remain in Canada—this pleases no one and did not work for Cameron, though currently the Wexit movement does not have the appeal of Brexit. Her plan is to use this referendum on several questions as a cudgel to beat the Canadian federal government into renegotiating the position of Alberta in the Canadian Confederation and fiscal framework. The idea is that if she has democratic support for her challenge to the federal government, Prime Minister Mark Carney will find it hard to resist the United Conservative Party’s demands.
If Smith’s gamble backfires, the consequences will not stop at the border. The structural shock to the American electoral map would be permanent—and the constitutional mechanism to achieve it is far simpler than Americans realize. Below the fold for paid subscribers: the congressional seat math, the Texas loophole, and the forgotten Founding era scheme to ease Canada into the American Union.
